UFC Fight Night Krylov vs. Spann preview, predictions, picks

This is a glorious time for MMA fans. Tonight’s UFC Fight Night main event between Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann should be very entertaining, and things are only heating up.

Between next week’s showcase of Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane at UFC 285, Petr Yan fighting Merab Dvalishvili the following week, and a second PPV later in March, we are set up for fireworks for weeks to come.

The mixed martial arts game is a fascinating one. Let’s get into our picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night live from the UFC APEX Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Opponents Nikita Krylov of Ukraine and Ryan Spann face off during the UFC
Opponents Nikita Krylov of Ukraine and Ryan Spann face off during the UFC
Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. Spann preview and predictions

Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann

We have won bets on Ryan Spann in the past, but this fight is different. Krylov is a wrestler but is much more careful about falling into front headlocks than Ion Cutelaba was.

Krylov has only lost to the best of the best in this division. His four losses have come to Magomed Ankalaev, Glover Teixeira, Jan Blachowicz, and Paul Craig. Spann is not the submission threat that Craig is. Expect Krylov to win this one early.

If you use FanDuel, grab Krylov by KO/TKO in rounds one, two, or three at +310. If not, Krylov to win in under 2.5 round prop is +100 on PointsBet and is an excellent value this evening.

The picks: Krylov by KO in rounds one, two, or three +310 (FanDuel) | Krylov wins in under 2.5 rounds +100 (PointsBet)

Brendan Allen vs. Andre Muniz

Who wins this fight on the feet? That’s the central question in this very exciting fight at middleweight.

Brendan Allen punches Jacob Malkoun of Australia in a middleweight fight
Brendan Allen punches Jacob Malkoun of Australia in a middleweight fight
Zuffa LLC

Muniz has proven to be an excellent grappler in his short UFC career, but most of those victories were against fighters well past their prime or lower-level competition. Allen isn’t a perfect fighter, he’s far too complacent on his back, but he should profile as a better striker in this bout.

Allen is also a solid takedown artist, averaging 3.99 takedowns per 15 minutes. That could actually be a detriment against a guy like Muniz, who will have the grappling advantage against almost anyone.

If Allen has the right game plan here and doesn’t try to grapple, he should be able to win this fight. I’ll take the dog here. He’s a better striker and not a slouch on the ground. That gives us a little bit of a buffer, although ideally, he avoids grappling at all costs.

The picks: Brendan Allen +184 (FanDuel) | wins by decision +500 (FanDuel)

Augusto Sakai vs. Don’Tale Mayes

At heavyweight, two fighters face off that are as frustrating as they come. Mayes is currently training with Jon Jones for his upcoming bout, so it would appear likely that he is in the best shape of his career.

Sakai is the loser of four straight, all by knockout. In the past, he has had some solid grappling and volume striking to carry him to victory. Two of those last three victories came by decision, and he was on his way to another before a lousy game plan led to a TKO loss to Allistair Overeem in round five.

Mayes has substantially more upside and is the better athlete, and Sakai seems to be trending down. I foresee Mayes having a decent grappling advantage and favor him on the moneyline.

We are getting +115 value despite money coming in on Mayes, and many books are putting this one closer to a -110 pick ’em. Most books will probably end there.

Grab +115 on the moneyline and fight goes to decision +166 on BetMGM.

The picks: Mayes ML +115 (BetMGM) | goes to decision +166 (FanDuel)

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UFC Fight Night final picks and parlay

It’s the weekend; take some shots.

  • Allen by decision +500 + Krylov wins in round 2 + Charles Johnson by KO/TKO in rounds 2 or 3 +650

This long shot parlay’s final odds come out to +33650. As an aside, the value on Johnson, a KO artist, is quite good, considering his opponent Ode Osborne has horrible cardio and is very prone to blowing out his gas tank.

This parlay is eligible to be placed on FanDuel Sportsbook and all odds were accurate at the time of writing.

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