After 23 seasons and seven Super Bowl championships, Tom Brady appears to be finally hanging up his cleats after all. And his absence is already shaping the Super Bowl betting market for next season.
Brady’s decision to walk away, which he announced Wednesday on social media, wasn’t exactly a surprise. He famously retired precisely one year ago today before walking that back a month later – immediately sending oddsmakers into a frenzy as the Buccaneers vaulted up the Super Bowl oddsboard with Brady in tow.
Few expected him to return to Tampa Bay in 2023, but he was floated as a potential starting quarterback for half a dozen teams ahead of this offseason. Now, with Brady retiring “for good,” in his words, we’re already seeing a shift in the futures market for next season.
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Brady retirement shifts Super Bowl odds for 2023 season
Most sportsbooks won’t have title odds posted until after this year’s Super Bowl, but BetMGM posted some early numbers last week, and some teams had already seen their prices buoyed by speculation about Brady’s future. That includes the Raiders and 49ers, both of whom were favored at various points over the last two weeks to land the three-time MVP winner.
Las Vegas opened at 50/1 to win it all last week and quickly saw that price shortened to 40/1, likely motivated by the swirling rumors of a potential Brady coup. That seems dead in the water now, and while the Raiders are still dealing at those odds as of Wednesday, that’s likely to fall closer to 50/1 or 60/1 once more sportsbooks post their opening title odds.
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It’s a similar story for the 49ers, who opened at 7/1 and had held firm at that price despite their quarterback room masquerading as an infirmary. Much of that was because San Francisco looked like a tailor-made landing spot for Brady, who was born in the Bay Area. Now that he’s out of the picture, the Niners should see a dip in their price after this week’s concerning injury news for presumptive starter Brock Purdy.
And then, of course, there’s the Buccaneers, who opened at 35/1 to win it all next year with Brady’s status still uncertain. Now that he’s “officially” out of the picture – you can never be too sure with Brady – Tampa Bay is dealing at 40/1 and could see that number climb even further if the team doesn’t snag one of the top free-agent quarterbacks on the market.