Three underdogs to back this weekend

There are plenty of terrific betting opportunities across the European soccer schedule this week. Let’s take a look at a few strong prices and see if we can build a lottery-ticket parlay to make this a weekend to remember (odds via BetMGM).

Everton (+145) vs. Aston Villa

Sean Dyche’s appointment as manager of Everton Football Club seems to be paying dividends already. The Blues have won two of Dyche’s first three matches and held their opponents, league-leading Arsenal and Leeds United, to just 1.29 expected goals. Neither Leeds nor Arsenal scored a goal on Everton. Aston Villa, meanwhile, has been a defensive mess of late. The Villans have lost three games on the spin and have conceded 11 goals on nine expected goals in that span. No team has surrendered more expected goals than Aston Villa since the World Cup.

Everton is still in a relegation scrap and should be buoyed by a raucous home environment. Back the Toffees at home on Saturday morning.

Newcastle United (+250) vs. Manchester United

It has been nearly 70 years since Newcastle United has won a major trophy. The Magpies will have the chance to end that drought, which goes back to 1955, on Sunday in the EFL Cup Final. And even though Newcastle is an underdog against red-hot Manchester United, these teams boast remarkably similar statistical profiles this season.

So why is Newcastle sitting as a clear underdog?

It seems to be a market overreaction to the fact that the Magpies will be forced to play No. 3 goalkeeper Loris Karius after Nick Pope was shown a red card in Newcastle’s loss to Liverpool last weekend. While not ideal, the jump from Pope to Karius isn’t drastic enough to warrant this much of a gap between two teams that, by every other number, look to be peers this season.

This is a great number on Newcastle.

Loris Karius
Loris Karius
Newcastle United via Getty Image

Union Berlin (+775) vs. Bayern Munich

Let’s finish this off with a wild price on the underdog in a huge match in the Bundesliga.

Bayern Munich has spent the last decade coasting to titles in Germany’s top division, but that run appears to be in serious jeopardy right now. Bayern is tied with Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin on 43 points and there are three other teams within three points of the Bavarians.

Despite that, Bayern is still a monster favorite against Union Berlin on Sunday morning. It shouldn’t be a surprise that the 10-time defending champions are the chalk, but this number seems a bit lofty.

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Not only is Union Berlin tied with Bayern atop the table, but the Iron Ones are the best defensive team in the Bundesliga, which is the highest-scoring league in Europe’s big five divisions. Bayern’s attack is elite and can give the strongest defenses plenty to think about, but it is also vulnerable in transition and aren’t a sure thing to keep things tidy in their own end, which should open up a path to success for the underdog here.

All three of Everton, Newcastle and Union Berlin are good bets on their own, but if you’re feeling frisky a three-leg moneyline parlay would pay out 74/1. Worth some lunch money.

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