It’s officially March!
Like many, I’m excited for March Madness and MLB season, with plenty of bracket pools, game picks, and season-long drafts to prepare for.
However, the NBA is always volatile and fascinating toward the home stretch of its regular season.
With constant injuries, rotation changes, and blatant tanking by some (cough, cough, Oklahoma City…), there are plenty of PrizePicks lines to keep attacking in the NBA on Wednesday!
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NBA Wednesday PrizePicks player prop picks and predictions
Gordon Hayward over 32.5 fantasy points
Speaking of injuries, it’s sad to see LaMelo hurt again.
Basketball is better when its superstars are healthy, so let’s hope for a speedy recovery.
In addition to Ball’s absence, P.J. Washington is expected to be out for the Hornets tonight.
Kevin Durant’s expected Phoenix debut will steal the media spotlight, but who cares?
We’re going to steal some inefficient lines!
Across a 237-minute sample size (without Ball and Washington on the court), Hayward is averaging a shade over 39 fantasy points per 36 minutes thanks to a 6% usage bump, while scoring almost six more real points per 36.
I’m also interested in his 17.5 points prop solely based on his usage spike alone.
A possible blowout is a bit concerning, but my glass is half full.
This is a great spot if this thing stays fairly competitive.
RotoGrinders has Hayward projected for 34 minutes and 37.12 fantasy points. Projections will love me for this one!
Bam Adebayo Under 8 Rebounds
Projections won’t love me for this one…but that’s OK.
Regarding rotation changes, Miami made a few low-key moves last month to bolster their bigs.
Kevin Love has been playing a ton of time alongside Adebayo since joining the club, while Cody Zeller is the new backup in the Magic City.
It’s a very small sample size, but Love has registered 14.3 rebound chances per game in just 22 minutes per contest since joining Miami, which comes out to a considerable per-minute number.
Bam averaged 11 chances during the stretch, but that figure is down drastically from his 16.3 season average.
Love seems to matter in this regard. While this 8.0 is a tiny number,
Bam should have to deal with the people’s MVP, Joel Embiid, tonight in the paint, who is a board hog in his own right.
Hopefully, there will be no bizarre injury news later.
If either Love or Embiid is not playing, I wouldn’t be as confident in this pick.
Betting on the NBA?
James Harden Over 43.0 Fantasy Score
Despite a tough matchup, this 43.0 line for Harden is too low.
He’s been nothing but consistent during his sophomore campaign in Philadelphia while covering this number in 70% of games played this season – including nine of his last 10.
Any experienced bettor will tell you those numbers alone are worth the risk and ROI.
Harden never needs a high-paced game to do his thing based on his style of play, and as long as this game isn’t a blowout, Harden should be in a position to eclipse this number.
RotoGrinders currently has him projected for 44.83 fantasy points.
Deandre Ayton Under 11.5 Rebounds
Ayton was a beast in January, accruing 19.3 rebound chances per game, which ranked eighth in the NBA.
The result was 11.9 rebounds per contest.
However, prior to the All-Star break, he averaged 15.6 rebound chances and 10.1 rebounds per game.
It looks like we’re now seeing a bit of regression following his monster first month of the new year.
Ayton has only hit the over at this number in two of 10 games in February.
He’s averaging 16 rebounds chances per game this month – but just 14.2 since the blockbuster trade on Feb. 9. Kevin Durant, an underrated rebounder (10.6 chances per game), could take away further opportunities from Ayton tonight.
Despite a fantastic matchup against Charlotte, RotoGrinders projects Ayton for less than 11 rebounds, and I think that makes a ton of sense tonight.
You can follow Justin Carlucci on Twitter @ThejCarlucci