Be warned, Daniel Jones.
The risks outweigh the potential reward.
A reward that certainly would not be guaranteed.
As the Giants and Jones continue negotiations over a long-term contract, there remains a gap between the $35 million-per-season range the Giants would prefer and the $40-million-plus-per-season range Jones desires.
The two sides have until March 7 to come to an agreement; otherwise the Giants will use the franchise tag to keep Jones off the open market. Though Jones and the Giants could then continue negotiating, if a deal isn’t reached by March 7, what are the odds they’ll find common ground afterward?
No, Jones shouldn’t just accept whatever the Giants offer him. But if he’s insistent on his price tag and decides to play things out on the franchise tag, he will be inviting significant, and unwise, risks and uncertainty into his career.
The Giants would prefer a five-year deal to spread out and decrease Jones’ salary-cap hit. If Jones compromises at the Giants’ preferred $35 million-a-year range, that would result in a five-year, $175 million contract.
Amid the growing trend of quarterbacks and other star players getting increasingly more of their contracts guaranteed, Jones would likely get $80 million-$100 million, if not more, guaranteed in the deal regardless of injuries or performance.
If he decides to play on the tag, Jones will have just $32.4 million guaranteed to him for next season.
Is the difference of around $5 million-per-season worth risking the likely difference of $50 million or more he’d be guaranteed to earn?
If Jones is confident enough in his abilities to hold out for what he wants, he has to be convinced that another team actually would offer him that if he were to eventually hit the open market.
Though the Giants seemingly would be willing to extend themselves a bit for Jones after what he did last season, do other teams see him as a $40 million-$45 million-a-year player?
Currently, it’s difficult to argue Jones deserves to make that compared to the other quarterbacks in that range (Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford and Josh Allen, to name a few). He doesn’t have a similar track record of success and hasn’t matched their statistical outputs.
Matching his career-best performance from this past season or — if he wants to command even more money than is being offered — improving on it in what would be a second straight prove-it campaign seems too big a gamble to risk long-term financial security, regardless of how confident he is in himself.
Yes, other athletes have taken that risk and bet on themselves — most recently the Yankees’ Aaron Judge — and gone on to dramatically increase the salary they were offered before the season.
Is that a smart bet for Jones?
Playing on the tag effectively would also hurt his chances for that improved performance he’d need to cash in.
The Giants enter the offseason with slightly less than $50 million in cap space. Jones’ entire $32.4 million tag number would count against the cap — taking up more than half of what they would be able to spend to fill myriad holes.
On a long-term deal, the cap hit likely would be reduced by more than half.
So, if he plays on the franchise tag, Jones might have to say goodbye to best friend and co-star Saquon Barkley, who is also negotiating with the Giants for a long-term deal. You can also assume it would inhibit the Giants from providing Jones needed improvements at receiver and offensive line.
Banking on yourself to produce improved numbers with the same, or possibly even worse, weapons/teammates around you? That’s asking a lot, especially just a year after it was unclear Jones could even be a starting quarterback in the league.
And after eight of the Giants’ nine regular-season wins came by one score or less, would anybody be surprised if a few of those went the other way next year and the Giants have a worse record next year in the loaded NFC East, especially if they’re hampered from meaningfully retooling?
How might that affect Jones’ attractiveness and potential suitors, or how the Giants view their quarterback needs?
Beyond performance, Jones’ biggest Achilles’ heel throughout his career — outside of early-career turnover problems — has been injuries, which forced him to miss significant time in each of his first three seasons. Though he had to battle an early ankle sprain, Jones just completed his first fully healthy season.
Would another team, or even the Giants, really be comfortable shelling out what Jones desires if he were to miss a lot of time again? And as a quarterback whose running prowess is a big part of his effectiveness, Jones is at an increased risk of injury.
Off the field, Jones risks losing some of the goodwill he’s built with Giants fans and team brass. It’s clear general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll hold high opinions of Jones and want him as their quarterback of the future, but after a tense offseason and whatever 2023 brings, could they be swayed by other options, either via the draft or free agency?
Would Jones have to prove his worth to them once again, or perhaps start pressing toward pursuing that cause?
Jones doesn’t need to look at this as his time for his biggest payday.
A five-year deal would make Jones a free agent again at just 30 years old.
Yes, he had a career year in 2022, but if he takes the risk of declining the Giants’ long-term contract and proves it again this year, the Giants can franchise-tag him again next year and possibly force him to do it a third time.
By compromising, he can allow the Giants to improve around him, giving himself a better chance to prove that he’s the type of player that commands $40 million-$45 million-a-year. He can continue to develop under Daboll, which did him wonders last year, and further pad his resume.
Then, it’ll be the time to hit his contract home run.
Jones may be hard-pressed to get the contract he wants right now. But if he’s willing to compromise, he might get what he wants and more…soon..
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Numbers to know: Knicks 142, Nets 118
The Knicks rolled to their seventh straight win Wednesday night, this time taking out the crosstown rival Nets, 142-118, with a first-half offensive explosion that turned the game into a laugher. Here’s a snapshot of numbers to know from the blue-and-orange party at MSG:
8️⃣1️⃣ Points the Knicks scored in the first half, their highest total in nearly 15 years
3️⃣0️⃣ Points by Jalen Brunson in that first half, a career high for a half, en route to finishing with 39 on absurd 15-of-18 shooting (5-of-6 from 3, 4-of-4 on free throws) plus six assists.
6️⃣ 3-pointers for Quentin Grimes (on nine attempts) as he began to emerge from a recent shooting slump. The Knicks hit a franchise-record 14 3-pointers in the first half and a season-high 20 for the game.
1️⃣ The Knicks (37-27), a season-high 10 games over .500, now trail the Cavaliers (39-26) by just one loss for fourth place in the Eastern Conference, which comes with home-court advantage for a first-round playoff series.
8️⃣ Losses in 10 games for the Nets since their rebuild commenced with the trade of Kyrie Irving. “To give up 142 points to your crosstown team, that hurts,” Jacque Vaughn said.
— Jonathan Lehman
Return of the Slim Reaper
On the other side of the Nets seeing their once-promising season disintegrate into one-sided losses … the Kevin Durant-Suns era is finally underway.
And it comes at a needed time for the Suns.
Three weeks after the Nets dealt the superstar to Phoenix for four first-round picks along with Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson, Durant made his Suns debut during the team’s 105-91 over the Hornets Wednesday night.
It was Durant’s first on-court action since Jan. 8, as he had been sidelined due to a sprained MCL. He finished with 23 points on 10-of-15 shooting. Easy.
The Suns (34-29) were just 3-3 since the deal before Durant suited up for the first time. They are now positioned as the No. 4 seed in the West, with a two-game cushion on the seventh-place Mavericks to avoid the play-in tournament.
The stars are shining bright on Broadway
Please find your seats. It’s showtime.
After a near three-year wait, Patrick Kane takes the ice as a Ranger tonight.
A longtime target for the Blueshirts, including weeks of rumors this year, the Rangers finally acquired the three-time Stanley Cup winner from the Blackhawks on Tuesday. They sent a conditional 2023 second-round draft pick, a 2025 fourth-rounder and AHL defenseman Andy Welinski to the Blackhawks in return.
As The Post’s Larry Brooks wrote after the deal, Kane delivers the Rangers a star-studded top six and represents a new Rockstar Rangers era going all-out for a Stanley Cup.
As such, the expectations and pressure on the Rangers have increased, and their success will now be measured in much stricter terms by postseason performance.
As one of the most aggressive contenders at the deadline, and after arguably making the biggest series of moves of any team in the Stanley Cup hunt, all eyes are now on the Rangers.
Starting tonight.
Everyone is winning with Ronaldo’s move
New league, new country, new uniform.
Same Cristiano Ronaldo.
Despite joining Al-Nassr in the the Saudi Professional League in the middle of the season, it’s taken Ronaldo just five games to surge to among the league’s leading goal scorers. His eight goals are tied for fourth-most and just five behind from the league leader, even though he has played in less than half the amount of games.
Ronaldo is reportedly earning $75 million per season with Al-Nassr.
The club is currently top of the table and has won four of five games since Ronaldo joined.
Back in Europe, Manchester United has improved dramatically since its acrimonious split with the club legend in November.
The parting followed Ronaldo’s bombshell interview with Piers Morgan in which he claimed he was “betrayed” by the team and railed against manager Eric Ten Hag.
Man U has risen to third place in the Premier League, and recently won the Carabao Cup. It advanced to the quarterfinals of the FA Cup on Wednesday as well.