NC House Speaker Moore is one of 3 Republicans expected to flip US House seats in 2024
On Tuesday, North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore secured the Republican nomination for Congress in the state’s 14th District, marking the beginning of what was anticipated to be a significant reshaping of the U.S. House delegation.
The 14th District is among three congressional districts projected to shift from Democratic to Republican control in the November election, following the redrawn voting maps by the state’s Republican-controlled General Assembly. These new maps were crafted in response to rulings by judges for the 2022 elections.
Candidates in the 6th and 13th Districts appeared to be heading towards runoffs, as none of them received more than 30% of the vote.
The new maps are expected to drastically alter the composition of the delegation, which currently consists of seven Democrats and seven Republicans, to one with 10 Republicans and four Democrats.
Following the redistricting changes, five incumbents chose not to seek reelection. Democratic Representatives Jeff Jackson, Kathy Manning, and Wiley Nickel opted out of reelection bids in districts that are now considerably more favorable to Republicans. Meanwhile, Republican Representatives Dan Bishop and Patrick McHenry are stepping aside for reasons unrelated to the redistricting.
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North Carolina US House seats are likely to flip to Republicans
Moore secured a comfortable victory over two Republican opponents in the 14th District, with the redrawing of the district by his General Assembly colleagues seemingly ensuring his desired move to Congress after 21 years in the state Legislature.
Pam Genant, an Army veteran and registered nurse, emerged as the Democratic nominee in the district, which encompasses parts of Charlotte and stretches westward to the foothills.
In the 13th District, which now curves around Raleigh in a horseshoe shape, fourteen Republicans competed for the open seat. First-place finisher Kelly Daughtry, a Smithfield attorney, appeared likely to head to a runoff as she narrowly missed the 30% threshold needed to win outright. Her opponent remained undecided, with former federal prosecutor Brad Knott of Raleigh and Wake Forest businessman Fred Von Canon vying for second place.
The eventual nominee will face Democrat Frank Pierce in the November election.
In the 6th District, Blue Cross and Blue Shield lobbyist and political newcomer Addison McDowell, along with second-place finisher and former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker, seemed to be headed for a runoff after surpassing four other Republicans in the district, which is currently held by Democrats.
No Democrat filed to run in the seat, which extends from Greensboro and Winston-Salem south and west to Concord.
The candidate in second place must formally request another election in writing. If a runoff is requested, it will be held on May 14.
WHAT RACES ARE COMPETITIVE?
In the open 8th District seat, the Rev. Mark Harris held a slight lead early Wednesday over political newcomer and Union County farmer Allan Baucom.
Justin Dues is the sole Democrat running in the district, which stretches from Charlotte east to Lumberton.
In 2018, Harris appeared to have garnered the most votes in the general election for Congress but never assumed office due to an absentee ballot fraud investigation. A new election was ordered, and he opted not to run again. Harris now refers to the events as a “manufactured scandal.”
The 10th district became available when McHenry, who briefly served as the U.S. House speaker in 2023, unexpectedly announced he wouldn’t seek reelection.
Green Beret Pat Harrigan, who unsuccessfully ran in a different U.S. House district in 2022, secured the Republican nomination. Harrigan will face Democrat Ralph Scott Jr. and a Libertarian Party candidate in the November general election.
Previous election data indicates that one district in North Carolina is likely a swing district. First-term Democratic Rep. Don Davis is seeking reelection in the 1st District, where he will compete against ex-Army colonel Laurie Buckhout, the GOP nominee for the district in the northeast part of the state.
WHAT OTHER INCUMBENTS ARE RUNNING?
Several Republican incumbents are running for reelection, with Rep. Virginia Foxx securing victory over a Republican challenger on Tuesday as she vies for an 11th term representing the 5th District in northwestern North Carolina.
Republican Representatives Greg Murphy in the eastern 3rd District and David Rouzer in the southeastern 7th District are running unopposed in the primaries. Chuck Edwards in the far-western 11th District and Richard Hudson in the Piedmont and Sandhills-area 9th District are also seeking reelection and defeated primary opponents despite vastly outspending them.
Democratic Rep. Deborah Ross, representing the Raleigh-dominated 2nd District, won her party’s nomination and will face Alan Swain, the Republican nominee. Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee in the Durham-area 4th District ran unopposed and will face Republican Eric Blankenburg in the general election. Rep. Alma Adams, representing Charlotte’s 12th District, ran unopposed in the Democratic primary and will face the GOP’s Abdul Ali.