A veteran Republican strategist says ‘Trump’s already in the finals.’ Will DeSantis or Haley join him to make the GOP nomination a two-candidate race?
Despite the narrow field, the narrative continues: Former President Donald Trump maintains a dominant position as the main contender for the Republican nomination, a position that hasn’t changed nine weeks before the early votes.
Sen. Tim Scott dropped out of the White House race on Sunday, following former Vice President Mike Pence’s exit from the 2024 GOP race two weeks earlier. In addition, four lesser-known candidates who did not qualify for the debate also withdrew their campaigns. The Republican field, initially crowded with more than a dozen contenders, continues to dwindle.
As the January 15 Iowa caucuses, marking the beginning of the Republican presidential nomination process, draw near, Trump maintains a significant double-digit lead over his rivals in the latest polls conducted in the early voting states. Moreover, he enjoys even more substantial advantages in national polls.
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Looking ahead, as the primary calendar unfolds, the primary question is whether the reduced number of candidates will give one of the remaining contenders a chance to create a competitive race against Trump.
“Nothing has changed. Trump is still ahead. Right now, he’s on track to win,” commented Dave Carney in an interview with Fox News.
Noting Senator Scott’s single-digit support in polls at the time of his campaign suspension, Carney commented, “It’s not like Scott is dropping out of the race, it’s not like the deck is completely reshuffled. His support doesn’t change the dynamics. Much.”
However, Carney also insisted, “There’s no way to spin this other than it’s good news for Nikki Haley. We’ll see if she takes advantage of it.”
Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the United Nations in the Trump administration, is currently in a race for second place in the GOP nomination race with two-time Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, both trailing far behind Trump.
David Koechel, a longtime Republican strategist, told Fox News that narrowing the Republican field is “a good thing for two people who still have a shot at becoming Trump’s replacement,” referring to DeSantis and Haley.
“Trump is already in the finals,” noted Koechel, a veteran of several presidential and statewide campaigns in Iowa. He insisted that DeSantis and Haley are “trying to construct some plausible way to get a one-on-one shot with Trump, which everyone agrees is necessary for any notion that he could be derailed without getting the nomination.”
Although DeSantis has strong name recognition nationwide and leads Haley in national polls, she has also drawn with DeSantis in recent polls in Iowa. Furthermore, she is leading in New Hampshire, where she holds the second voting position, and in her home state, which hosts the first Southern contest.
Haley’s recent surge in polls can be attributed to her well-regarded performances in three Republican presidential primary debates. Her campaign announced Monday that it is committing $10 million to run TV, radio, and digital ads in Iowa and New Hampshire starting next month.
“We’re going to be on TV,” Haley announced in an interview on “Fox News Sunday” last weekend. “We’re going to be strong in New Hampshire. We’re going to be strong in South Carolina because we’ve spent our money well. We have great ground games in each of those states. And we’re going to continue to grow.”
Iowa, however, is an early battleground, and last week DeSantis secured the endorsement of GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds, the most popular among Hawkeye State Republicans. Reynolds’ support gave DeSantis a much-needed boost to change the negative narrative.
DeSantis is actively seeking the endorsement of Bob Vander Platts, who heads Iowa’s leading social conservative organization, Family Leader. In this state, evangelical voters have significant influence in Republican presidential politics.
“Tim Scott and Mike Pence have shifted resources toward Iowa with the goal of attracting evangelical supporters, and unlike Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is gaining ground with those voters,” Andrew Romeo, DeSantis’ campaign communications director, said in a statement to Fox News.
Kochel stated, “I think Iowa’s going to be more determinative than ever as to who’s going to have momentum going into New Hampshire and South Carolina.”
“Trump already has a ticket. There’s maybe two more and maybe one more” coming out of Iowa, he forecasted.
Kochel anticipated “a pretty fierce contest” in the weeks ahead between DeSantis and Haley.
The 2024 GOP field also includes former two-term New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who is focusing most of his efforts on New Hampshire. Additionally, there is multi-millionaire biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old first-time candidate who appears to draw significant support from Trump’s MAGA wing of the party. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, who did not make the stage at the third debate, and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who failed to qualify for the past two showdowns, are running long-shot campaigns.
Jimmy Centers, a seasoned Iowa-based Republican strategist and communicator, cautioned that “everyone needs to be clear-eyed that former President Trump will win the Iowa caucus on Jan. 15.”
“The question is whether Gov. DeSantis or Amb. Haley comes in a strong enough second place where they put a significant gap between themselves and whoever comes in third can tell the Republicans in New Hampshire and beyond that it’s a two-person race,” he lit up.
Centers said Haley has “obviously done very well” since the debate began, “and voters in Iowa are responding to that.”
But he said DeSantis “has some momentum right now after Governor Reynolds’ endorsement last week.”