Mental soundness and honesty are the top traits voters want in their candidate
The economy is the most important issue to Arizonans, and by a double-digit margin, more of them trust former President Donald Trump to handle it than President Joe Biden.
That helps explain Trump’s edge in the presidential race, according to a new Fox News survey of Arizona registered voters.
In a potential 5-way race, Trump is ahead of Biden by 43%-39%, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receiving 10% support, Jill Stein 2%, and Cornel West 1%. Trump’s 4-point advantage is within the survey’s margin of sampling error.
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump by 4 points, with Biden at 45% and Trump at 49%. This gap mirrors a 4-point decrease from Biden’s share of the vote in 2020.
Read More: Trump, Biden nearly tied as general election kicks off: poll
Biden’s strongest support comes from moderates (with a 28-point lead), independents (14-point lead), urban voters (12-point lead), college graduates (11-point lead), and Hispanics (6-point lead). However, he underperforms notably with women, holding just a 2-point lead in this group.
Conversely, Trump’s lead stems from his support among Whites without a college degree (a 23-point advantage), rural voters (an 18-point advantage), men (a 12-point advantage), those under 45 (a 9-point advantage), and White voters overall (a 7-point advantage). Notably, Trump leads in every age group except for those aged 65 and over, where Biden holds a 4-point lead.
In the hypothetical matchup between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, those supporting Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. tend to favor Trump over Biden by a margin of 14 points. However, a significant portion of this subgroup, comprising 20%, remains undecided, wouldn’t vote, or supports another candidate.
The support base for Trump is largely consolidated within the Republican Party, with almost all Republicans backing him. Meanwhile, Biden enjoys overwhelming support from Democrats and a plurality of independents. However, Trump’s advantage is bolstered by the current higher proportion of Arizona voters identifying as Republicans rather than Democrats.
Despite Biden’s narrow victory in Arizona in 2020, by less than 0.5% (translating to fewer than 11,000 votes), marking the state’s first Democratic win since 1996 and only the second since 1948, Trump’s prior win in 2016 by approximately 3.5 points indicates the state’s historical political dynamics.
As voters weigh their options for the presidential candidate, three main issues stand out as top priorities: the economy, election integrity, and immigration. Over half of the electorate considers each of these issues to be extremely important in their decision-making process.
While these issues take precedence, fewer voters place the same level of importance on other topics such as health care, abortion, foreign policy, and climate change. This indicates a clear hierarchy of concerns among voters as they navigate their choices for the next president.
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According to polling data, there’s a clear disparity in voter trust regarding key issues between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. Trump holds a significant lead on two of the top three issues: the economy (with a 14-point margin) and immigration (with a 20-point margin). However, Biden narrowly edges out Trump on the issue of election integrity, with a 3-point lead.
Additionally, Biden is preferred on climate change by a substantial 12-point margin, despite it being the lowest priority among voters. He also leads on abortion by 6 points and on health care by just 2 points. Conversely, Trump is trusted more on foreign policy, with an 8-point advantage.
This breakdown highlights the divergent perceptions of the two candidates on various policy matters and underscores the complex landscape of voter preferences.
Four years ago, trust regarding handling immigration was evenly split in this border state, with both candidates garnering roughly equal levels of trust (Biden held a slight 1-point lead). However, the current dynamics reveal a notable shift in perceptions.
Among Democrats, the top-ranking issues are abortion, election integrity, and health care. Republicans and independents, on the other hand, prioritize immigration, the economy, and election integrity.
When it comes to candidate characteristics, voters prioritize mental soundness and honesty, with three-quarters considering these traits extremely important (74% for mental soundness and 73% for honesty and trustworthiness). Additionally, nearly 7 in 10 voters emphasize the importance of a candidate who is willing to fight for people like them (67%) and demonstrates strong leadership (66%). However, fewer than 4 in 10 voters prioritize a candidate who is not too extreme (37%). These findings shed light on the qualities voters prioritize in their presidential candidates.
Trump holds a considerable advantage over Biden among voters who prioritize specific candidate qualities. He leads by 22 points among those who consider strong leadership extremely important, by 19 points among those prioritizing mental soundness, and by 14 points among those valuing a candidate willing to fight for people like them. On the other hand, Biden is preferred by a margin of 20 points among voters who prioritize a candidate who is not too extreme. The two candidates are nearly tied among voters who prioritize honesty, with Biden holding a slight 2-point lead.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, in collaboration with Democrat Chris Anderson for Fox News surveys, notes a significant shift in support among Hispanics and younger voters away from Biden. Additionally, those who harbor suspicions about the eventual MAGA (Make America Great Again) candidate appear to have even greater concerns about the current president.
The survey, released Wednesday, reveals that nearly 6 in 10 Arizonans report either getting ahead financially or maintaining their financial status, and these voters predominantly favor Biden. Conversely, 4 in 10 respondents indicate they are falling behind financially, and they overwhelmingly support Trump. These findings underscore the influence of economic considerations on voter preferences in Arizona.
President Biden’s job approval rating in Arizona stands at a negative 14 points, with 43% of respondents approving and 57% disapproving. Notably, 92% of those who approve of Biden’s performance express support for his reelection bid.
Democratic pollster Chris Anderson highlights a paradoxical situation for the Trump campaign, noting that despite voter belief that Trump would handle immigration and the economy better than Biden, Trump struggles to break the 50% mark in the polls. Anderson expresses concern, questioning what it will take for Trump to gain more substantial support, particularly when Biden’s disapproval rating approaches 60%.
The disparity between strong disapproval and strong approval of Biden is stark, with twice as many Arizonans strongly disapproving (46%) as those who strongly approve (23%) of his performance. This discrepancy underscores the polarization of opinions surrounding President Biden’s tenure in office.
Poll Pourri
In a generic Congressional ballot test in Arizona, 42% of voters support the Democratic candidate in their district, while 48% favor the Republican candidate. Interestingly, a comparison to presidential vote preferences reveals that neither candidate appears to significantly impact their party’s support, as 93% of those backing the Democrat in their district also support Biden, while 93% of those favoring the Republican candidate back Trump.
Furthermore, a notable proportion of non-MAGA Republicans (23%) indicate they would vote for Biden if the election were held today, although a significant majority (69%) still supports Trump. However, in the 5-way presidential race, only 53% of non-MAGA Republicans back Trump, with 20% supporting Biden and 17% opting for Kennedy.
These findings suggest a nuanced dynamic within the Arizona electorate, where party affiliation and candidate preferences demonstrate variability depending on the specific context of the election.
Among non-MAGA Republicans, their assessment of their financial situation aligns closely with independents, as 43% of both groups indicate they are falling behind, compared to 56% among all Republicans.
There appears to be a higher level of interest in the 2024 election among Republicans compared to Democrats, with 63% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats expressing extreme interest. Additionally, within the Republican party, MAGA Republicans exhibit greater enthusiasm, with 68% feeling extremely interested compared to 52% of non-MAGA Republicans.
Among voters under the age of 35, there is significant disapproval of President Biden, with 70% expressing disapproval. Additionally, over half of this demographic (53%) report financial struggles. In a head-to-head ballot, Trump holds an 8-point lead over Biden among this group.
Consistent with previous Fox News battleground state surveys, Trump is maintaining his 2020 vote percentages, while Biden is generally falling short of his mark by 2 to 6 points. These trends highlight the enduring support for Trump and the challenges faced by Biden in maintaining his electoral coalition.
The Fox News Poll conducted from March 7-11, 2024, was overseen by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). It surveyed 1,121 registered voters in Arizona, randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Interviews were conducted via live interviewers on both landlines (210) and cellphones (625), while an additional 286 respondents completed the survey online after receiving a text message. The margin of sampling error for results based on the full sample is ±3 percentage points.
To ensure the demographic representation of respondents aligns with the registered voter population, weights are applied to variables such as age, race, education, and area. These measures aim to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the survey findings.