Abortion remains a potent issue for Democrats at the ballot box, nearly a year and a half since the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade
For Republicans, Election Day in 2023 fell significantly short of their expectations.
The results from Tuesday’s gubernatorial and legislative contests, along with high-profile referendums, provided a significant boost for Democrats. These outcomes also potentially serve as a cautionary signal for the GOP as they prepare for the 2024 presidential elections and the battle for control of Congress.
President Biden, who has been contending with a series of unfavorable polls in recent days, raising doubts about his chances of winning re-election next year, highlighted the Democrats’ achievements at the ballot box.
“Across the country tonight, democracy emerged victorious while MAGA faced defeat. Voters make their voices heard, not the polls. Now, let’s focus on winning next year,” the president emphasized in a fundraising social media post and text message.
Here are some key insights from the 2023 election outcomes.
Abortion remains a potent issue for Democrats
In the predominantly red state of Ohio, voters decisively approved a ballot measure aimed at safeguarding abortion rights within the state constitution.
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These results mark the latest in a series of statewide victories for abortion rights, which have gained momentum since the Supreme Court’s conservative majority made a significant move last year by overturning the longstanding Roe v. Wade decision, which had legalized abortions nationwide for nearly half a century.
This decision shifted the contentious issue back to individual states, compelling Republicans to take a defensive stance in elections across the country. Despite being a party largely characterized as “pro-life,” they have had to contend with an electorate in which a majority of Americans support at least some level of access to abortion.
Virginia’s legislative elections represented a significant battleground for Republicans concerning the abortion issue. The Democrats’ victories in these elections will empower them to block the GOP from enacting abortion restrictions in the state.
Both national and state-level Democrats made abortion a central focus of their efforts to mobilize voters in Virginia.
Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, who spearheaded the GOP’s campaign to secure complete control of the state government in Richmond, strongly emphasized this issue. He advocated for a proposed 15-week abortion ban, with provisions for exceptions in cases of rape, incest, and the mother’s life.
Governor Glenn Youngkin expressed his desire for clarity about the direction they were taking, stating in an interview with Fox News last week, “I just wanted us to be very clear about what we were going to do.” He argued that the opposing side was skilled at spreading misinformation and that their objective was to make abortion accessible up to the point of birth, with the cost covered by taxpayers.
On the other hand, Democrats campaigned on maintaining the state’s existing regulations, which permit abortions up to the second trimester. They also highlighted the fact that Virginia is the only southern state that does not prohibit abortions.
Ultimately, the Democrats were successful, retaining their majority in the state Senate and regaining control of the state House of Delegates.
In heavily red-state Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won re-election in part by criticizing anti-abortion by his Republican challenger, state Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
And in a closely watched state Supreme Court race in battleground Pennsylvania, the Democrat won an open seat after campaigning on a pledge to uphold abortion rights.
Longtime GOP strategist David Koechel noted that abortions remain a “terrible issue” for Republicans. “They are far from where the country is” on this issue.
Kochel, a veteran of several presidential and statewide campaigns, acknowledged that Republicans “can’t win on abortion” and urged GOP candidates to fight “where they can win — on the economy, on foreign policy, on efficiency.”
Maria Cardona, a member of the Democratic National Committee, and a prominent strategist, pointed to last year’s midterms, where Democrats performed, and told Fox News that the 2023 results “look like everybody’s predicting a red wave in 2022.”
Looking ahead to next year’s contests, Cardona predicts abortion will “continue to be an incredibly mobilizing issue.”
Glen Youngkin falls short
Youngkin wasn’t on the ballot, but he was very interested in the results of Tuesday’s legislative election in Virginia.
A first-time candidate from the party’s business wing, Youngkin would become the first GOP candidate to win a gubernatorial election in a swing state in a dozen years, unseating former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe in 2021. toward the Democrats over the past decade.
Investing plenty of political capital on behalf of Republican legislative candidates, Youngkin became the face of his party’s push to win full control of state government in Richmond as he crisscrossed the state holding rallies.
But he failed in his mission, and the results suggest that Youngkin will not be free to advance a conservative agenda during his final two years in office. They are also seen as a political setback for the governor, who has been touted as a rising star in the GOP and many in the Republican donor class are seeking a last-minute entry into the party’s 2024 presidential nomination race.
What 2023 tells us about 2024
Democrats are highlighting their victories on Tuesday night, including unexpected legislative gains in New Jersey, as a positive indicator for President Biden as he seeks a second four-year term in the White House.
Education Secretary Miguel Cardona contended, “I firmly believe it was a significant night for Joe Biden because the president serves as the leader of the Democratic Party. He is the one advocating for the Democratic agenda… which is creating a contrast that is helping Democrats secure victories at all levels of government throughout the country.”
However, in Republican-dominated Kentucky, Governor Beshear distanced himself from Biden and national Democrats, as did Democratic gubernatorial nominee Brandon Presley in Mississippi, where he outperformed expectations in his single-digit loss to Republican Governor Tate Reeves.
GOP strategist David Kochel, taking note of Biden’s declining poll numbers, asserted that “the best news for Republicans” in the aftermath of the disappointing 2023 election results is that Joe Biden remains the Democratic standard-bearer in 2024, which he sees as detrimental for the Democrats.