The new poll shows former President Trump leading President Biden in Virginia by 3 percentage points as the Republicans flip the state red.
A recent poll indicates that former President Trump is ahead of President Biden by three percentage points in Virginia. This shift comes as Republicans aim to overturn the state’s recent Democratic trends, particularly since Biden won Virginia by a significant margin of 10 points in 2020. Virginia has consistently voted for Democratic presidential candidates since Barack Obama’s initial election in 2008.
According to the Virginia Commonwealth University-Wilder School poll, Biden’s support has decreased from 42% earlier this year to 36%, while Trump’s numbers remain unchanged at 39%. This decline for Biden suggests a loss of support rather than significant gains for Trump.
The poll results favor the Trump campaign and raise concerns within the Biden camp, especially after criticism following a poorly received debate performance on June 27. The polling between June 24 and July 3 partly reflects voter sentiment influenced by this event.
Biden’s job approval rating in the poll is 36%, with a disapproval rating of 58%. Key issues for voters include the rising cost of living, women’s reproductive rights, and immigration, with over half of Virginians viewing illegal immigration as a major concern.
Among African American voters, Biden’s support has dropped sharply from 67% to 46%, while 13.7% indicate they would vote for Trump, highlighting a significant shift in voter preferences.
The VCU-Wilder poll surveyed 809 Virginia adults aged 18 and older via telephone interviews, with a margin of error of 4.8 points. Despite not being traditionally considered a battleground state for the 2024 election, recent polling suggests Virginia could witness a closely contested race.
In June, a Fox News poll showed Trump and Biden tied at 48% each in Virginia, indicating a deadlock. However, a subsequent New York Times-Siena College poll conducted in July showed Biden leading Trump by three percentage points among likely voters.
Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin has voiced optimism about Virginia’s electoral landscape, asserting that the state “is in play” and could deliver a victory to Trump in November. Reflecting on his victory in 2021, where he succeeded Biden’s previous margin, Youngkin highlighted the appeal of commonsense conservative policies to Virginian voters.
However, the VCU-Wilder poll indicates a slight decline in Youngkin’s approval, dropping from 54% earlier in the year to 50%, with his disapproval rising from 36% to 39%.
In other electoral contests, incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine maintains a lead over Republican challenger Hung Cao by a margin of 49% to 38% among likely voters.
Regarding Trump’s legal troubles, the poll found that 53% of Virginians are less likely to support him due to his recent conviction in New York on charges of falsifying business records. Conversely, 31% indicated they are more inclined to support him following these legal developments. Among independents, 45% expressed decreased support due to the convictions, while 25% indicated increased support.
These findings underscore Virginia’s evolving role in the upcoming election cycle, potentially reshaping the national electoral landscape as campaigns intensify their efforts in the state.