PLAYERS Championship predictions: Long shot picks, sleepers

The PLAYERS Championship always features an elite field.

Not only is it played in the backyard of the PGA Tour at the iconic TPC Sawgrass, but there are 600 FedEx Cup points up for grabs and a record $4.5 million will be handed to the winner.

It’s no wonder that 43 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will tee it up in Florida. 

Beating out an elite field like this is no small task, but we always see some surprising names in contention every year at THE PLAYERS.

Last season, Anirban Lahiri finished runner-up to Cam Smith and Doug Ghim and Russell Knox finished T6.

The previous year saw Lee Westwood finish second. And in 2019, Jim Furyk came in second, while Jhonnatan Vegas and Eddie Pepperell finished T3. 

Then there’s Si Woo Kim. Now a mainstay on the PGA Tour, Kim was as high as 750/1 when he won the PLAYERS back in 2017.

With all of that in mind, here are a few triple-digit long shots to circle as outright plays, cheap DFS options or placement bets.

The PLAYERS Championship long shot picks

Webb Simpson (+14,000, FanDuel)

We’ll start with Simpson, who seems to be playing himself back from the abyss.

Simpson has missed the cut here in back-to-back years, but he is a former winner at TPC Sawgrass (2018) and has a pair of T16 finishes as well.

Simpson missed the weekend in his first two starts in 2023, but he’s made three cuts in a row and is coming off a T24 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Simpson is +14,000 (FanDuel) to win this week.


Francesco Molinari
Francesco Molinari
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Francesco Molinari (+14,000, FanDuel)

Don’t look now, but Molinari is starting to pop up on leaderboards once again.

The 2018 Open Champion has struggled since blowing the 2019 Masters to Tiger Woods, but he’s got plenty of experience in this event.

The Italian has his fair share of MC’s, but he’s also got four top-10 finishes at TPC Sawgrass in his career.

Molinari is +14,000 at FanDuel

Joel Dahmen (+22,500, Caesars Sportsbook)

Dahmen was playing some great stuff during the Fall Swing, but has since come back down to earth during the early stages of 2023.

Still, this is a place where players can come out of nowhere to contend and Dahmen’s course history is encouraging enough that it makes him an interesting option at this price.

He’s competed three times at THE PLAYERS and has bookended a missed cut with a T12 and T33.

It’s also worth noting that Dahmen has two top-10 finishes at Majors, so he can show up in elite fields.


Joel Dahmen
Joel Dahmen
Getty Images

Doug Ghim (+31,000, FanDuel)

Ghim is also worth a look as an outsider.

He’s not played well at all in 2023, but has two strong showings at TPC Sawgrass.

Ghim finished T29 in his debut and then followed that up with a T6 performance in 2022. 

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