Kyle Kondik says Democrats will have a hard time winning Buckeye state
Election analyst Kyle Kondik says that while some Republican policies may not resonate well with popular sentiment in Ohio, the state’s Republican politicians still enjoy more popularity than their Democratic counterparts.
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Kondik, an Ohio native, serves as managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections, from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. In an article titled “No, Ohio Is Not in Play,” Politico argued that Ohio currently does not serve as a reliable indicator of future presidential outcomes, favoring Republicans in the current political climate.
He noted that while some Republican positions, such as those on abortion, may not resonate with majorities, Democratic candidates in Ohio appear to be gaining more and more popularity. He suggests it’s part of a broader trend in which states once won by former President Barack Obama have shifted their support toward the GOP following the political “realization” catalyzed by former President Trump.
In the context of the Trump era, particularly in the Industrial North, Kyle Kondik noted a significant trend of declining Democratic performance in presidential elections. To put it broadly, he observed that, in comparison to the national picture, only Illinois and Minnesota remained as strongly Democratic in 2020 as they were in 2012. In contrast, the other states in the region that had voted for Barack Obama at least once (including Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) shifted towards supporting the Republican party to a greater extent.
Kondik continued to summarize that the shift towards the Republican party at the presidential level in the region was a significant outcome of the Trumpian realignment. This shift was characterized by the attraction of more White voters without four-year college degrees into the GOP coalition, a crucial and substantial demographic in many of these states.
He also discussed the political changes occurring in “collar counties,” which are counties adjacent to major urban areas. While some of these collar counties in the industrial North have been won back by Democrats, Kondik pointed out that many of Ohio’s collar counties are visibly leaning towards the Republican side.
Kondik acknowledged that there has been some movement favoring Democrats in the collar counties of the region, a movement that played a pivotal role in Joe Biden’s successful efforts to regain some of these states in the 2020 election. However, he noted that in Ohio, it is considerably more challenging to find examples of Democratic growth in these suburban and exurban collar counties. Furthermore, in the extensive rural areas and small towns of Ohio, he observed a substantial decline in support for Democrats.
Kondik referenced a report from the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, which compared the 2012 and 2016 elections. He summarized the findings, noting that two significant demographic groups in Ohio exhibited conservative tendencies: non-college-educated White voters in Ohio actually became slightly more Republican than their national counterparts, and college-educated White voters in the state also remained more Republican-leaning than their national counterparts.
This combination, where non-college-educated Whites leaned more heavily towards the GOP, along with college-educated Whites maintaining a Republican inclination, poses a significant electoral challenge for Democrats in Ohio. This challenge is exacerbated by Ohio’s demographic makeup, which is whiter than the overall U.S. population.
However, Kondik suggested a potential “silver lining” for Democrats, pointing to their successful opposition to Republican policy through Issue 1. He argued that this victory could serve as a blueprint for a potential Democratic victory in Ohio in the future.
Kondik concluded by emphasizing that Ohio is expected to continue to draw attention in 2023, notably due to an upcoming vote on abortion rights scheduled for November. However, he also noted that regardless of the outcome of that ballot measure, the Trump-led realignment has, at least for the time being, shifted Ohio away from its historical role as a decisive indicator of presidential elections.