Recent polls show Harris falling about 2 percentage points behind Trump, according to the NY Times
President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election has sent ripples through the political landscape, bringing Vice President Kamala Harris into sharper focus as a potential Democratic nominee. Despite recent speculation, this move surprised many, given the context of recent polling data and Biden’s previous campaign momentum.
Global Leaders React to President Biden’s Decision Not to Seek Second Term
Polling Comparisons: Harris vs. Biden Against Trump
Polling data has consistently shown a close contest between the Democratic and Republican candidates. According to a New York Times assessment, Harris trails former President Trump by approximately two percentage points (46% to 48%), a slight improvement over Biden’s average polling deficit of three percentage points (44% to 47%).
A closer look at battleground states provides more nuanced insights. For example, a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in Pennsylvania from July 9-11 revealed that Harris was only one percentage point behind Trump in a hypothetical matchup. This was before the shocking assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
In Virginia, Harris demonstrated a stronger lead, polling five percentage points ahead of Trump, while Biden’s lead in the same state was much narrower. Harris’s polling advantage over Biden is particularly notable among Black voters, younger voters, and women, demographics crucial for the Democratic base.
Democratic Voter Sentiment
The sentiment among Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents has been gradually shifting towards favoring a change in the presidential candidate. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted from July 5-9 found that 70% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would be “satisfied” if Biden withdrew and Harris was nominated for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate.
When asked an open-ended question about their preferred candidate if Biden stepped aside, 29% of respondents named Harris. Other potential candidates included California Governor Gavin Newsom (7%), former First Lady Michelle Obama (4%), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (3%), and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (3%). However, a significant portion of respondents (50%) did not specify an alternative candidate.
Pressure from Democratic Lawmakers and Donors
The pressure for Biden to step aside has been mounting, driven by both lawmakers and donors. An AP-NORC poll released last week indicated that about six in 10 Democrats believe Harris would do a good job as president. In contrast, two in 10 Democrats disagreed, and another two in 10 were unsure.
This sentiment is echoed by a CNN poll conducted by SSRS, released on July 2, which indicated that three-quarters of voters believe the Democratic Party would have a better chance of retaining the White House with someone other than Biden at the top of the ticket. In a hypothetical match-up, Harris garnered 45% support compared to Trump’s 47%, a difference within the survey’s margin of error.
Implications for the Democratic Party
Biden’s decision not to run for re-election opens the door for Harris and potentially other Democratic candidates. The current polling suggests that while Harris is not drastically outperforming Biden, she may offer slight advantages in key demographics and battleground states.
As the Democratic Party navigates this transition, the focus will likely be on consolidating support around a candidate who can unify the party and present a strong challenge to the Republican nominee. With Harris gaining traction among crucial voter segments and enjoying substantial support within the party, she emerges as a leading contender for the Democratic nomination.
The coming weeks will be crucial as the Democratic Party recalibrates its strategy and prepares for a competitive presidential race. Biden’s endorsement of Harris could play a pivotal role in shaping the party’s direction and rallying support ahead of the 2024 election.