Harris has gained about 22 points on Trump over the last week in betting markets
Washington D.C. – Vice President Kamala Harris has made significant strides in the election betting markets, closing the gap on former President Donald Trump since taking over as the Democratic presidential candidate.
According to the Real Clear Politics betting average, as of Sunday, Trump holds a 54.6% chance of winning the election, compared to Harris’s 39.2%. This 15.2 percentage point spread marks a notable shift over the past week. On July 20, just before President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, Trump’s chances stood at 61%, while Harris’s were at 18.2% and Biden’s at 9.5%, resulting in an almost 43-point lead for Trump over his nearest competitor.
This trend is mirrored in PredictIt, a New Zealand-based prediction market where shares represent the likelihood of political outcomes. Currently, Trump shares are priced at 54 cents, indicating a 54% chance of winning, while Harris shares are at 48 cents. Historical trends from PredictIt reveal that on July 20, Trump shares were valued at 64 cents, Harris at 27 cents, and Biden at 15 cents. This means the price gap between Harris and Trump has narrowed significantly, from 37 cents to six cents over the past week.
The significant shift in betting markets reflects Harris’s ability to consolidate support quickly. After President Biden’s endorsement, Harris garnered a wave of endorsements and substantial fundraising success. These factors and positive media coverage have contributed to her rising chances.
The tightening betting markets coincide with polls that suggest a potentially close race between Trump and Harris. The Real Clear Politics national average shows Trump with a slim 1.7-point lead over Harris. While polling in key battleground states has been limited, the available data also indicates a competitive race.
The increasing competitiveness in the betting markets and polls underscores the evolving dynamics of the 2024 presidential race. Harris’s campaign has focused on addressing critical issues such as healthcare, immigration, and economic inequality, aiming to appeal to a broad base of voters. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign continues to emphasize his previous administration’s economic achievements and promises of restoring order and prosperity.
Both the Trump and Harris campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Fox News Digital. As the election draws closer, the dynamics between the two candidates are expected to further intensify, reflecting the evolving political landscape and voter sentiment.
Political analysts suggest that the coming months will be crucial for both campaigns. Harris will need to maintain her momentum and continue to rally support, especially in swing states. Trump, on the other hand, will need to address the concerns of undecided voters and strengthen his base to ensure a robust turnout.
The election’s outcome remains uncertain, with both candidates having the potential to sway the electorate in their favor. The narrowing gap in the betting markets is a clear indication that the race is far from decided, and the coming months will be pivotal in determining who will lead the United States for the next four years.