If Chelsea is going to salvage its season it’ll have to be through a surprising run in the Champions League. The Blues currently sit in 10th place in the Premier League and are 10 points behind Newcastle for a spot in the top-four. Graham Potter has his work cut out for him, but he can at least hang his hat on the fact that Chelsea have a decent draw in the Round of 16.
Borussia Dortmund are no pushovers, but bookmakers have Chelsea as a -160 favorite to advance past the Germans in the first knockout stage.
Despite being the favorite to advance, the Blues are a +200 underdog in the first leg, which takes place at the Westfalenstadion.
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Chelsea vs. Borussia Dortmund pick: Chelsea +200 (FanDuel)
Things have been pretty ugly for Chelsea of late. Not only do the Blues have just one win in their last seven matches, but they’ve scored just four times in that span and have been held scoreless in seven of its last 12 contests across all competitions. If it wasn’t for a strong defense — Chelsea has conceded just one goal and 3.9 expected goals in its last four contests — the Blues could be sitting a few spots further down in the table.
But there are some silver linings for Chelsea. The Blues have created nearly 11 expected goals in their last five games, meaning they are underperforming by almost seven goals in their last five contests. In other words, it’s not that Chelsea isn’t creating scoring opportunities, it’s just that they are not finishing their chances.
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At some point, you’d expect the Blues to start filling the back of the net.
Dortmund, meanwhile, check into this game in terrific form. BVB have won all five of their matches since the World Cup break and have a +10 goal differential to show for it (15 GF, 5 GA).
But there is some necessary context to this hot run. Dortmund have played a relatively light schedule since returning from the break and have outscored their xG by roughly five goals. While Chelsea should experience some positive regression in front of goal, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see BVB go the other way.
Perhaps Chelsea’s lack of finish is a personnel problem more than anything else, but this price is worth the risk of learning that the hard way. Plus, the Blues do look a more dangerous outfit with Enzo Fernandez and Joao Felix in the squad.
This is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot. Back the Blues on Wednesday.