Two of the Premier League’s pleasant surprises will do battle in West London on Monday afternoon.
Fulham, who are remarkably just six points out of a Champions League spot in their first season back in the top division, are +265 underdogs against Brentford, who also have European football in their sights in just their second-ever Premier League campaign.
Which team is the better value in Monday’s West London Derby?
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET and the game can be seen on USA Network.
Brentford vs. Fulham prediction
Fulham have been terrific since being promoted from the Championship. The Cottagers got off to a hot start and then faded a bit before the World Cup, but since then it’s been all bells and whistles for Fulham.
The Cottagers are 6-2-2 since the break and have a +5 goal difference in those 10 matches. Incredibly, Fulham has only conceded five goals since returning to action.
Any defense can run hot over a course of a soccer season, but Fulham’s defensive form is bordering on ludicrous. The Cottagers were projected to be one of the poorest teams in the Premier League at keeping the ball out of their net this season, and their underlying metrics suggest they should be right up there. But, somehow, Fulham have been a top-10 defensive side in the league this season and lead the circuit in goals allowed per 90 since the World Cup.
It all seems like a house of cards, though. Overall, Fulham ranks 18th in non-penalty expected goals against and 20th in big scoring chances allowed. Since the break, the Cottagers have allowed 13.5 expected goals in 10 games – which isn’t a terrible mark at all – but they’ve only surrendered five. That is some black magic and seems unsustainable.
Brentford, too, has been in tip-top form since the World Cup. The Bees went into the break with a monumental upset as a +1900 underdog against Manchester City and have gone unbeaten in their eight games since, albeit with four draws.
Like Fulham, Brentford’s defense has been driving the bus. The Bees have allowed just five goals in eight games, but unlike their West London rivals, Brentford’s statistical portfolio suggests their +9 goal difference since Qatar 2022 is legitimate.
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At some point, Fulham’s defensive high-wire act is going to catch up with them. The numbers suggest the Cottagers will get found out eventually – and what better time for it to happen than on Monday afternoon at the Brentford Community Stadium?
Brentford vs. Fulham pick
Brentford +104 (BetRivers)