It’s been an ugly stretch for Bournemouth Football Club. The Cherries are 0-2-5 (W-D-L) in their seven matches since the World Cup and have scored just twice, while giving up 12 goals in that span. Bournemouth is now sitting in 19th-place with 18 points from 22 matches and is a -450 favorite to be relegated.
Bournemouth will have a chance to close the gap on one of the teams its chasing, Wolverhampton Wanderers, on Saturday.
Wolves are a -155 home favorite on the three-way moneyline.
Bournemouth vs. Wolverhampton prediction
10 a.m. ET, Peacock
There’s very little in the numbers that suggest that Bournemouth can make a charge up the table and save themselves from relegation, but there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that the Cherries can be a tough out against Wolverhampton at the Molineux on Saturday.
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The Cherries have mustered up just two goals in their last seven matches, but they’ve created close to seven expected goals, meaning they should experience some positive regression at some point. Bournemouth are playing poorly — they boast a -7.1 expected goal difference since the World Cup — but the Cherries are not playing as bad as their -10 goal differential implies.
On the opposite side of the coin, Wolverhampton have enjoyed a bit of a new-manager bounce since the World Cup. Wolves have four wins, one draw and three losses since the Premier League returned and own a +2 goal difference in that seven-game stretch. Wolverhampton needed a stretch like that to give themselves some breathing room in the relegation fight and they’ve accomplished that and now sit five points above 18th-place Everton.
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The feeling around the Black Country is that Wolverhampton have found their footing under Julen Lopetegui, but the truth is that Wolves are not playing that much better than they were under previous manager Bruno Lage. The only difference is that Wolverhampton is finishing its chances and getting saves from goalkeeper Jose Sa. According to Understat, Wolves should have around 7.3 points from its last seven contests, not 13.
Wolverhampton is a much better team than Bournemouth and is a deserving favorite — especially at home — but this number is way too high on a very vulnerable, flawed team that is just going through a hot stretch. Getting near +480 to take on Wolverhampton is always going to be worth a hard look, even if the team you need to back is Bournemouth.
Bournemouth vs. Wolverhampton pick
Bournemouth +480 (FanDuel)