There’s no tradition in sports quite like the NCAA Tournament, which creates the perfect storm of chaos and entertainment within its 68-team field.
And everyone knows the best part of March Madness is the flurry of upsets over the tournament’s first two days.
That will almost certainly be the case again this year, which follows a regular season defined by parity and general mayhem among the elite ranks of college basketball.
And there are a handful of early-round matchups that stand out as particularly friendly for the underdog.
Here are five of our favorite upset picks in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, with odds courtesy of BetMGM:
March Madness 2023 predictions: Best NCAA Tournament 1st-round upsets
No. 10 Penn State (+125) over No. 7 Texas A&M
After ending the season on a 19-4 run, Texas A&M deserved better than a No. 7 seed and a date with red-hot Penn State in the first round.
Alas, the Aggies will have their hands full slowing down a team that played its way off the bubble with a giant-slaying run over the last month.
The Nittany Lions are the most experienced college basketball team, boasting a top-10 turnover rate (13.7%) and five starters shooting north of 36% from deep.
That includes superstar senior Jalen Pickett (17.9 PPG), who leads his team in points (17.9), rebounds (7.3) and assists (6.7) and ranks third nationally in assist rate (40.4%).
His elite playmaking ability is the main reason Penn State ranks in the top 10 in 3-point percentage (38.5%) and 3-point rate (47.4%) – the only team to even rank in the top 20 in both areas.
Texas A&M’s defense allows the second-highest 3-point rate (45.9%) and fourth-worst assist rate (59.3%) of any team in this tournament, which is a crippling weakness in this specific matchup.
No. 12 Drake (+120) over No. 5 Miami
It’s easy to overlook Drake based on strength of schedule alone, but this team has won 13 of its last 14 games and has all the makings of a Cinderella squad.
Tucker DeVries (19 PPG), son of head coach Darian DeVries, is a legitimate three-level scorer with good size (6-7) and a smooth shooting stroke that could eventually land him in the NBA.
He’s the only non-senior starter for the Bulldogs, who are among the most experienced and game-tested groups in the country with solid efficiency on both ends.
Miami ended the year on a 9-2 run but could be without starting center Norchad Omier (ankle), who led this team in rebounds (9.7) and blocks (1.3) before injuring his ankle in the ACC Tournament.
If he can’t go or isn’t at full strength, it could be a fatal blow for a defense that already ranks among the worst in this 68-team field.
No. 12 VCU (+145) over No. 5 Saint Mary’s
It’s a shame that Saint Mary’s drew such a brutal matchup in the first round, as the Gaels have all the pieces to make a deep run in this tournament.
Unfortunately, we may never see that come to fruition because of their first-round matchup with VCU, which ranks sixth in opponent turnover rate (24.1%) and plays a style that’s well-suited to mucking up the methodical set pieces for Saint Mary’s.
That’ll force freshman guard Aidan Mahaney to create even more offense on his own, which didn’t go well in his team’s two recent losses to Gonzaga.
VCU’s offense has come on strong during the team’s 17-2 run to close the year, and the Rams’ stellar free-throw rate (41.8%) is the third-highest by any team in the tournament.
The Gaels have struggled all year to keep opponents off the free-throw line, which makes a tough matchup even more arduous on Friday.
No. 13 Kent State (+165) over No. 4 Indiana
At times, Indiana has looked like one of the best teams in the country.
It’s also suffered some bizarre lulls on both ends of the court, which doesn’t bode well for Friday’s matchup with Kent State.
The Golden Flashes won’t be scared of the moment: they led Houston by double digits in late November and had a four-point lead over Gonzaga in the final minutes just a few days later.
They dropped both contests, but they’ve gone 22-3 in three months behind a senior-heavy starting lineup that doesn’t turn it over and has shot the ball well as of late.
Indiana star Trayce Jackson-Davis is by far the best player in this matchup, but his team doesn’t take many threes and has struggled at the free-throw line all year long.
If this game is close in the final minutes, don’t be surprised if Kent State’s experience wins out.
Betting on March Madness 2023?
No. 14 Montana State (+310) over No. 3 Kansas State
On paper, this would be the biggest upset on this list and one of the more surprising results of the entire tournament.
Yet oddsmakers and advanced metrics alike are seriously underrating how poor of a matchup this is for Kansas State.
The Wildcats have beaten some of the best teams in the country, but they’ve also lost seven of their last 13 games with a losing record on the season playing away from home (7-8).
A key reason is this team’s propensity for turnovers: Kansas State has coughed it up on 21.3% of its possessions since Feb. 1, which ranks 340th out of 363 possible teams.
On the other side, Montana State owns a 20.7% defensive turnover rate over the last month and ranks fifth nationally in offensive free-throw rate (44.4%), while the Wildcats allow the 10th-highest free-throw rate (36.7%) of any team in the tournament.
It all adds up to a nightmare matchup for first-year boss Jerome Tang in his first NCAA Tournament game as a head coach.