How the Republican contenders for the 2024 presidential nomination fare aren’t the most important thing in the world. There are war and heat waves and enduring poverty and a decommissioned submarine; Low on the list is how Iowans will show up together for their quadrennial barn dance seven months before Donald Trump’s poll numbers.
And yet here we are. Because this decision is so important, however far-fetched because it is the definitive measure of where the country is headed. Poll numbers give a feeling of losing grip on the future like a compass still spinning more than is useful. But it still provides some sense of north and, therefore, the direction you’re heading.
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So let’s take a look at two snapshots of the Republican race in an attempt to make some progress: this week’s CNN poll, conducted by SSRS, and its poll from March.
I came up with this idea by looking at how Trump’s support compares to that of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) among different demographic groups. Looking at recent CNN numbers, it’s clear there isn’t much use. Trump has a solid lead over DeSantis across the board. And since they’ve both consistently captured three-quarters of available support for months, that seems to tell us what we already know.
Then I thought it would be useful to visualize the variation. So I made radar graphs, showing support for each candidate along an axis radiating from a central point. Here’s a comparison of Trump, DeSantis, and every other named candidate. If an axis extends further up, the candidate/group of candidates received more support.
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Apparently, college-educated voters with about 7 o’clock on our dial. This group is the only one not led by Trump; With every other demographic, Trump is a healthy red who is a distant second.
You can also see how less likely strong Republican voters are to choose the third option. Independents and moderates still like Trump but the “other guy” field has defeated DeSantis, at least collectively.
Now, brace yourself to find out how the same poll fared in March.
These are very different pictures! All we’re summarizing here is, really, that DeSantis‘ support has slipped. But it almost universally did.
In March, DeSantis was running even with Trump among men and conservatives. He leads among likely voters over 49 and those with a college degree. The “other people” pool is still strong in the same places, but DeSantis almost always beats them. That is, see Shift with the Independents!
Or, more usefully, see a shift in general. Here are March (in gray) and June (in blue). DeSantis contraction.
Meanwhile, Trump ballooned. In every group except the under-50s, Trump increased his support by about the same amount.
The pattern of collective others is almost the same: expansion pretty much across the board.
That’s partly explained by the number of new candidates who announced their bids for the nomination during that period, including former Vice President Mike Pence (not terrible in CNN’s recent poll). But do you know who has joined the race since March? Ron DeSantis.
Two snapshots of these polls understand the uncertainty in their results. Perhaps these particular snapshots show a pattern that has been overstated or has already begun to change.
Or maybe the needle of the compass (in my woefully confused set of metaphors) begins to settle and point to where things are headed.