PORT ST. LUCIE — Stolen bases are going up this year. You can instigate a pretty good argument between informed baseball folks about just how much.
One NL executive anticipates a 50 percent increase in steal attempts, noting that would be larger than experienced in the minors with fewer disengagements (notably pickoff throws) allowed per plate appearance and larger bases (which shorten the distance between the bags 4 ¹/₂ inches). Namely, the executive believes, because there is greater day-to-day emphasis on game strategy in the majors and large research departments are going to find ways to exploit the new rules.
But Buck Showalter wonders about human nature. Yeah, there are larger analytic staffs than in the minors. But the Mets manager also notes larger media contingents. He expects some of his brethren — concerned about having to explain why the strategy failed — will turn conservative. He also expects all the large staffs to apply themselves to stopping running games.
That, of course, includes his always-in-overdrive-baseball brain. Showalter, for example, explained if a pitcher throws over twice there will be a tendency for runners to be more daring because a third disengagement without picking off the runner results in a balk and all runners advancing a base. But Showalter said if it is a base stealer who is going to now succeed at a 90 or 95 percent level, why not throw over to first again and perhaps catch an overly aggressive/confident runner? He also anticipates way more pitchouts as a counterattack.
But while Showalter — or any manager — can use strategy to try to curtail running games, your roster is your roster. And if it doesn’t have base stealers, then the new rules might be about to help others more. And the Mets’ roster does not look like one that will be capitalizing on what almost certainly will be a rise in steal attempts and successes. In the minors in 2019 (the last full season without these new rules), there were 2.23 steals per game (both teams) with a 68 percent success rate. It was 2.81 and 78 percent last year.T
The Mets stole just 62 bases last year (eighth fewest in the majors) at a 74 percent success rate (just under the league average of 75 percent). And they did not markedly upgrade in this area. Tommy Pham was 8-for-11 in steal attempts last year for the Reds and Red Sox. But he is a 35-year-old fourth outfielder. Tim Locastro could make the team, especially if the Mets put Darin Ruf on the injured list or release him; a possibility before their April 6 home opener.
Locastro could be used as a late-game runner. He is 39-for-44 in steals in his MLB career and was 7-for-8 for the Triple-A Yankees under the new rules last year.
“It took a little time to get used to [the new rules last year],” Locastro said. “Then slowly you understood that guys were a little more timid to throw over. And then you got a feel for it.”
Still, in his time with the Yankees, I did not think Locastro was as bold to steal a base late when the whole stadium anticipated he might go as compared to, say, Tyler Wade.
Showalter feels that the new rules can open the running game for smart base runners with a little better than average speed who can pick their spots; he cited Mark Canha and Jeff McNeil. Of course, that will be true for opponents, too. The Mets were minus-24 last year between how many bases they stole and how many they surrendered. That is like hidden yardage in the NFL and that could widen in 2023.
For it not to expand a lot comes down to Starling Marte and Francisco Lindor. They led the team last year with 18 and 16 steals, respectively. Pete Alonso was next with five. They also are the two batters in front of Alonso’s power bat and — new rules or not — Lindor said that while “I try to steal the most bases possible,” he added, “one misstep and Pete is batting in the next inning with no one on.”
Additionally, there’s the extra pounding that comes with stealing bases when the most vital element is that Lindor/Marte bat 1,100-plus times in 2023. Lindor is a middle infielder, which increases duress on the body. Marte is 34 and has endured lower-body ailments, including quad and groin injuries last year. When Marte was absent due to a fractured middle finger late last season, the Mets offense struggled overtly from it.
Marte, who stole 47 bases in 52 tries in 2021, said: “In terms of stolen bases [with the new rules], I can’t say what I will do [as far as a total], but if I am healthy, I will be able to do what I do.”