Think before taking Matt Olson in your fantasy baseball draft

Before you click “draft” in your virtual draft room or scream your pick’s name across your buddy’s basement, make sure you ask yourself these questions: Is this player worth being taken at this point? Who else is available? Can I get more bang for my buck later?

When it comes to first basemen, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt will be the first four taken. The last of the top-tier at the position is Matt Olson, a great power-hitter who is glued to the middle of a loaded Braves lineup.

The most important number to consider when drafting Olson is this: 35.28. That’s his average draft position, according to Fantasy Alarm. He’s a top-five first baseman, but that doesn’t mean his ADP offers your team the best value in that spot.

Now, ask yourself those questions:

1. Is this player worth being taken at this point?

In his first year as Freeman’s replacement in Atlanta, Olson ranked eighth in RBIs (103), 11th in homers (34) and 24th in slugging percentage (.477). His average exit velocity ranked in the top 3 percent of the league, and his hard-hit rate was in the top 4 percent.

Though his .276 BABIP indicates there was room for improvement, know that his average (.240) dipped more than 30 points after he hit .271 in 2021. His walk rate (10.7 percent) was down from 13.1 percent in 2021. His strikeout rate jumped from 16.8 percent in 2021 to 24.3 percent. He stole no bases after having four in 2021.

Olson’s numbers also dipped in the second half for a second straight year. After hitting .255 with 17 homers, 60 RBIs and a .828 OPS in the first half in 2022, he hit .219 with 17 homers, 43 RBIs and a .765 OPS after the break. That includes hitting .193 with a .695 OPS over the final 31 games — when fantasy owners needed him most.

2. Who else is available?

For around that same ADP, you could have well-rounded players such as Francisco Lindor (36.65), Randy Arozarena (39.97) or Cedric Mullins (47.58). They may not offer Olson’s power or RBI total, but do offer better averages, runs and something Olson will never provide: stolen bases. You also could grab a top-15 starting pitcher — such as Spencer Strider (35.2), Max Scherzer (40.07), Brandon Woodruff (40.3) or Carlos Rodon (42.68).

3. Can get I more bang for my buck later?

Worried about the first basemen available if you bypass Olson? Don’t be. First base is a deep position — like, absurdly deep.

You can wait about four rounds and grab Houston’s Jose Abreu (79.92). Almost 60 picks after Olson is ripped off the boards, you can snag a youngster with tons of upside in Roto Rage favorite Vinnie Pasquantino (94.52) — who hit .346 with seven homers, 21 RBIs, 16 runs, a 15-21 strikeout-walk rate and .960 OPS over the Royals’ final 43 games in 2022.

Texas’ Nathaniel Lowe (100.25), Colorado’s C.J. Cron (119.98) and Arizona’s Christian Walker (121.22) — the 2022 waiver-wire darling who smashed more homers (36) and had an ever-so-slightly better average (.242) and OPS (.804) than Olson — are solid mid-round options.

The White Sox’s Andrew Vaughn (141.03) can be had at great value, as can Cleveland’s presumptive cleanup hitter, Josh Bell (166.62). Roto Rage also believes Milwaukee’s Rowdy Tellez (170.32), who smashed 35 homers and drove in 89 runs, should have a huge target on his back. Sure, he hit .219 in 2022, but his BABIP (.215), xBA (.252) and xSLG (.479) point to a guy who was unlucky.

Boston’s Triston Casas (218.05) is an intriguing late-round option, as are Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson (260.13), Cincinnati’s Wil Myers (262.27), the Angels’ Jared Walsh (291.27) and Tampa Bay’s Harold Ramirez (350.9).

There will also be chances to snag this year’s version of Walker, or a late-season hero such as Joey Meneses, off the waiver wire during the season.

Olson is undoubtedly a great fantasy option, but Roto Rage believes the price is high — especially when you understand what else is out there.

First base

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tor
2. Freddie Freeman, LAD
3. Pete Alonso, NYM
4. Paul Goldschmidt, StL
5. Matt Olson, Atl
6. Vinnie Pasquantino, KC
7. Nathaniel Lowe, Tex
8. Jose Abreu, Hou
9. Rhys Hoskins, Phi
10. C.J. Cron, Col
11. Christian Walker, Ari
12. Ryan Mountcastle, Bal
13. Josh Bell, Cle
14. Rowdy Tellez, Mil
15. Anthony Rizzo, NYY
16. Andrew Vaughn, CWS
17. Jake Cronenworth, SD
18. Ty France, Sea
19. Jose Miranda, Min
20. Josh Naylor, Cle
21. Brandon Drury, LAA
22. Luis Arraez, Mia
23. Seth Brown, Oak
24. Triston Casas, Bos
25. Miguel Vargas, LAD
26. Trey Mancini, ChC
27. Spencer Torkelson, Det
28. DJ LeMahieu, NYY
29. Wil Myers, Cin
30. Isaac Paredes, TB
31. Joey Meneses, Was
32. Dominic Smith, Was
33. Brandon Belt, Tor
34. Wilmer Flores, SF
35. Jared Walsh, LAA
36. Luke Voit, FA
37. Garrett Cooper, Mia
38. Jesus Aguilar, Oak
39. Joey Votto, Cin
40. Carlos Santana, Pit
41. Harold Ramirez, TB
42. Ji-Man Choi, Pit
43. Eric Hosmer, ChC
44. LaMonte Wade Jr., SF
45. Bobby Dalbec, Bos

Third base

1. Jose Ramirez, Cle
2. Manny Machado, SD
3. Austin Riley, Atl
4. Bobby Witt Jr., KC
5. Rafael Devers, Bos
6. Nolan Arenado, StL
7. Gunnar Henderson, Bal
8. Alex Bregman, Hou
9. Max Muncy, LAD
10. Jose Miranda, Min
11. Matt Chapman, Tor
12. Alec Bohm, Phi
13. Ryan McMahon, Col
14. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pit
15. Eugenio Suarez, Sea
16. Brandon Drury, LAA
17. Anthony Rendon, LAA
18. Justin Turner, Bos
19. Josh Jung, Tex
20. Josh Rojas, Ari
21. Yandy Diaz, TB
22. Luis Urias, Mil
23. Jeimer Candelario, Was
24. DJ LeMahieu, NYY
25. Yoan Moncada, CWS
26. Ha-Seong Kim, SD
27. Eduardo Escobar, NYM
28. Luis Rengifo, LAA
29. Isaac Paredes, TB
30. Jon Berti, Mia
31. Josh Donaldson, NYY
32. Brendan Donovan, StL
33. Wilmer Flores, SF
34. J.D. Davis, SF
35. Rodolfo Castro, Pit
36. Gio Urshela, LAA
37. Brian Anderson, Mil
38. Jace Peterson, Oak
39. Spencer Steer, Cin
40. Jordan Walker, StL
41. Kyle Farmer, Min
42. Ramon Urias, Bal
43. Joey Wendle, Mia
44. David Villar, SF
45. Brett Baty, NYM

Team name of the week

Paredes by the Dashboard Light