Back on Feb. 4 it looked like Arsenal was on its way to a the Premier League title and Everton was heading for relegation.
The Gunners were a massive favorite over the Toffees on that day, but a 1-0 victory for Everton flipped the script on the races at the top and bottom of the table.
But a few weeks later and it seems like we’re right back where we were for the first meeting between these two clubs.
Everton is back in the relegation zone, Arsenal is atop the table and the Gunners are a massive favorite over the Toffees.
Can Everton pull another fast one on the league-leaders?
Arsenal vs. Everton pick
2:45 p.m. ET
Everton’s win over Arsenal last month was impressive.
It was the managerial debut of Sean Dyche and the former Burnley manager put on a tactical masterclass against Mikel Arteta’s side.
The Toffees did a terrific job counter-pressing the Gunners, stopping attacks before they had a chance to get going.
At the end of the match, the scoreboard read, 1-0 in favor of Everton, but you could argue that the Toffees deserved to win by more.
The expected goals data backs that up, as Everton doubled-up Arsenal on xG, 1.7 to 0.9.
Whether Everton can replicate that effort on the road is a valid concern, but expecting Arsenal to just run over Dyche’s side seems a dangerous game to play.
As a manager, Dyche has developed a reputation for being a defensive-minded, conservative coach.
While that is true to some extent, it does underrate his prowess on the touchline and how difficult he makes his teams to beat.
Everton’s midfield was incredible against Arsenal in the first encounter, but their job will likely become more difficult with the Gunners at home and prepared for what Everton will do.
That could mean a more pragmatic approach from Everton, who could sit back more and press a little less.
The Toffees won’t have much of the ball at all, but they’ll be fine with that look to hit back on the counter as much as possible.
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The problem is that, even if Everton are able to win the ball and counter, they don’t have an imposing attacking force to threaten Arsenal’s defense.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is still injured, Ellis Simms is likely not ready for a test like this and Neal Maupay has one goal for Everton this season.
With Everton looking to gum up the works and not offering much going the other way, this match will likely struggle to get to three goals.