Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes?

For all of the player props, game props, and novelty bets ahead of the 2023 Super Bowl, there’s no market quite as rewarding as betting on the Super Bowl MVP, which requires a delicate balance of prognostication and value mining to come out on top.

As we broke down in detail earlier this week, this has traditionally been a quarterback’s honor – they’ve won 31 of 56 MVP awards and four of the last six – but we’ve seen a shift toward receivers and even defenders over the last decade.

With that in mind, here are the odds to win Super Bowl MVP courtesy of BetMGM, along with our best bets in this market ahead of Sunday’s clash between the Eagles and Chiefs:

2023 Super Bowl MVP odds, pick

(via BetMGM)

Patrick Mahomes	+130
Jalen Hurts	+140
Travis Kelce	+1100
A.J. Brown	+1400
Miles Sanders	+2500
DeVonta Smith	+3000
Haason Reddick	+3000
Jerick McKinnon	+5000
Isiah Pacheco	+5000
Darius Slay	+5000
Chris Jones	+5000
Dallas Goedert	+5000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	+6600
Chad Henne	+6600
JuJu Smith-Schuster	+6600
Brandon Graham	+8000
Nick Bolton	+10000
TJ Edwards	+10000
Frank Clark	+12500
Quez Watkins	+12500
Gardner Minshew	+12500
Kenneth Gainwell	+12500

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles (+140)

I’m dumbfounded that Hurts isn’t the favorite in this market, as he’s the quarterback of the team favored to win it all. And at this price, he’s easily the best bet on the board.

The dual-threat star has been the engine for this dynamic Eagles offense, which enters Sunday having already rushed for the most touchdowns in NFL history (39). A whopping 15 of those have come from Hurts, who also has 24 scores through the air amid an MVP-like campaign for the third-year passer.

Hurts is a dangerous weapon who has his fingerprints all over Philly’s plan of attack offensively, anchored by an elite O-line that should give Kansas City fits on Sunday. I love the Eagles to win outright here, and I expect Hurts to do enough to earn the credit for it in the form of an MVP trophy.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (+1100)

If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl – and I’m skeptical that they will – you have to imagine that Kelce will play an outsized role a la Cooper Kupp and Julian Edelman in recent years.

Kelce is that important of a piece within this Kansas City offense, leading the team in postseason receiving yards (176) and touchdowns (3) with triple the receptions (21) of any other Chiefs pass-catcher. His presence is especially vital considering Patrick Mahomes’ lingering ankle injury and the myriad injuries to Kansas City’s receiving corps – laying the groundwork for Mahomes to favor his go-to target even more than usual.

It’s hard to imagine Kansas City winning this game without Kelce playing a major role in that. If Mahomes is less-than-stellar along the way, it shouldn’t be surprising at all to see the All-Pro tight end steal this award in a showdown with his older brother.

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Ready to start your Super Bowl 2023 betting?

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Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Eagles (+12500)

This is my favorite long-shot bet in this market by far – not because I think Gainwell will win MVP, but because oddsmakers are pricing him like a total afterthought.

That just simply isn’t the case. The second-year rusher led all Eagles backs in carries (14), rushing yards (48), and snap count (31) in last week’s win, and his 112 yards in the divisional round were the most in a postseason game by any player on either roster.

Yes, both games were blowouts, but I see Sunday’s game script playing favorably into Gainwell’s skill set as a receiver and slippery big-play threat. This offensive line has made heroes out of Philly’s running backs all year long; it could make an MVP out of Gainwell, too.