A Manhattan prosecution of Donald Trump could help the former president return to the White House.
“Trump-Biden 2.0” is nothing like the first confrontation in 2020 with Covid lockdowns, a shuttered economy, and days before a vaccine announcement.
This time on the presidential racetrack, President Joe Biden also holds the record as president, and his age (and what appears to be a growing weakness in contrast to former President Trump’s strength) is foremost on many voters’ minds. —Democrats, independents, and Republicans—The next round of issues are an open southern border, the impact of inflation on groceries, gas, and housing for three years, crime, and support for Israel in its war on Hamas. All four favor the former president over the current president.
Two upcoming events are expected to have a significant impact on the campaign. First, Trump will announce his choice for vice president. It would be beneficial if he selects a seasoned individual like Senator Tom Cotton, Senator Joni Ernst, or former Secretary of State Pompeo.
Secondly, I hope Trump releases a list of potential appointees for key Cabinet positions. While not specifying roles, it would be helpful to see figures like Pompeo possibly returning to State or taking on Defense, former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe heading the CIA, former Ambassador to Germany and acting DNI Rick Grinnell, and former National Security Advisor Ambassador Robert O’Brien potentially filling roles like Secretary of State, Chief of Staff, or National Security Advisor.
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Senator Tom Cotton could be considered for positions like Defense or Justice, and former State Department Spokesperson Morgan Ortagus could be eyed for roles at the U.N. or the Department of Homeland Security, among others.
Creating such a list would function similarly to Trump’s 2016 list of potential Supreme Court nominees, reassuring an important segment of the voting public regarding the national security team and highlighting sharp differences with Team Biden. While the presidential candidate choice remains pivotal, swing states may hinge on small vote margins, making key personnel decisions crucial in critical states.
Another significant development expected before November is Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s prosecution of Trump, set to begin this month. The merits of this phase of the legal battle against Trump, known as “lawfare,” are widely viewed as questionable, including by respected former Southern District of New York Prosecutor Andrew C. McCarthy.
This prosecution is widely seen as a politically motivated attack, based on an alleged misdemeanor that was never pursued due to the statute of limitations expiring. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has resurrected this case by trying to link it to a dubious narrative—that the payment of hush money to Stormy Daniels by Michael Cohen somehow translates into 34 felony charges.
This tactic, known as “count stacking,” often infuriates defendants and their legal teams as it’s typically considered an abuse of the legal process—unless there’s a strong bias against the defendant, in which case it’s sometimes praised as a necessary evil for a supposed greater good.
The approach echoes Lavrentiy Beria, Stalin’s notorious head of the secret police, who famously declared, “Show me the man and I’ll show you the crime.” Manipulating the criminal justice system to target political opponents is reminiscent of the tactics used by some of history’s most corrupt regimes, tyrants, and juntas. Bragg’s actions fall into this concerning category.
It’s difficult to envision Trump receiving a fair trial in Manhattan, especially considering the challenges in selecting impartial jurors. In New York City, Biden overwhelmingly dominated the 2020 election with 76% of the vote compared to Trump’s 23%. Even in 2016, Hillary Clinton secured 79% of the vote in Gotham while Trump garnered only 18%.
Moreover, the events surrounding the Capitol riot on January 6, 2017, coupled with the relentless one-sided vilification campaign against Trump by the House Select Committee on January 6, create additional hurdles. This committee, engineered to resemble a kangaroo court, is unprecedented in the history of the House and further diminishes the likelihood of finding impartial jurors willing to approach Trump’s case with an open mind.
Even if 34 convictions were to occur and a significant sentence handed down, the upcoming trial promises to be a spectacle rivaling any Broadway show or New York City circus. However, rather than damaging Trump’s campaign, it could potentially fuel it, much like it did during his primary victory.
Winston Churchill’s famous saying, “Trust the people,” is relevant here. Not only will individuals like Andrew McCarthy, serious former prosecutors who may not be staunch supporters of Trump but hold deep respect for the rule of law, speak out against the perceived abuse of process, but every defendant who has ever felt unjustly targeted by a prosecutor will likely see parallels in Trump’s case. It’s worth noting that African American males are often associated with overcharging and prosecutorial misconduct. NBC’s Steve Kornacki has confirmed that Trump consistently polls better with this demographic for the upcoming election than any Republican since 1968.
During yesterday’s National Public Radio’s Morning Edition, I described myself as an “outlier” regarding the Manhattan case. I believe that this prosecution will likely end up benefiting Trump’s campaign. Despite dissenting opinions, some have warned me that the trial could result in weeks of the Access Hollywood tape being replayed endlessly, with Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels testifying. At the same time, Trump is forced to remain silent, perhaps under a restrictive gag order, and facing the prospect of a substantial sentence.
However, I anticipate an even greater backlash against what many perceive as an abuse of the criminal justice system. In the end, I trust the judgment of the people.
Democrats and the Left placed all their bets on Trump being renominated and used “lawfare” tactics to hinder him in the general election. However, this strategy has backfired, resulting in a series of defeats for them. Notably, they suffered a 9-0 defeat in the United States Supreme Court regarding the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision and faced criticism for the actions of Fanni Willis and Nathan Wade in Georgia.
The phrase “The best-laid plans of mice and men…” comes to mind for many observers. If, in the aftermath of the 2024 election, a former president achieves a comeback akin to Grover Cleveland’s in the 21st century, Alvin Bragg will likely be among those credited for his role.