Riyadh’s diplomatic push comes amid growing concerns over Iranian proxies in the region
Saudi Arabia may be open to accepting a non-binding commitment from Israel to establish a Palestinian state as part of its efforts to secure a defense pact with the United States before the 2024 presidential election.
Saudi Arabia had been moving towards establishing normal relations with Israel and officially acknowledging the country for the first time, thanks to diplomatic efforts led by the United States. However, these efforts were put on hold in October following the October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas, and the subsequent counter-offensive by Israel that stirred tensions in the Arab world.
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Still, Saudi Arabia is showing a growing interest in bolstering its security to fend off potential threats from its rival, Iran. This focus is crucial for the kingdom as it aims to proceed with its ambitious economic transformation plan and attract significant foreign investment, according to two sources in the region.
Riyadh’s diplomatic efforts are occurring in the context of increasing concerns about Iran’s expanding military influence. Iran has proxies in various regions, including Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.
To introduce flexibility into discussions regarding the recognition of Israel and to reestablish the U.S. pact’s momentum, Saudi officials have informed their U.S. counterparts that Riyadh would not demand tangible actions from Israel to establish a Palestinian state. Instead, they expressed willingness to accept a political commitment to a two-state solution, as revealed by two senior regional sources to Reuters.
Executing such a significant regional agreement, perceived as improbable even before the Israel-Hamas conflict, would encounter numerous political and diplomatic challenges. These hurdles include the uncertainty surrounding the unfolding of the Gaza conflict.
An additional significant obstacle to these plans is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has unequivocally dismissed any U.S. and Arab aspirations for the establishment of a Palestinian state once the Gaza war concludes.
A prospective agreement, wherein the world’s largest oil exporter seeks U.S. military protection in return for normalizing relations with Israel, has the potential to reshape the Middle East. This pact could bring together two historical adversaries, binding Riyadh to Washington, particularly significant as China is actively expanding its influence in the region.
A normalization agreement would additionally enhance Israel’s defenses against its arch-rival, Iran, and provide U.S. President Joe Biden with a diplomatic triumph to highlight in the lead-up to the November 5 presidential election.
Saudi officials have confidentially encouraged Washington to exert pressure on Israel to bring an end to the Gaza war and commit to a “political horizon” for the establishment of a Palestinian state. In return, Riyadh has indicated its readiness to normalize relations and assist in financing the reconstruction of Gaza, as disclosed by one of the regional sources.